[h=1]Olney: Six teams to watch with Kimbrel, Keuchel finally about to sign[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young Award and a World Series ring, and Craig Kimbrel is on a performance trajectory that might lead to his making an induction speech in Cooperstown. Their bona fides are alluring for fans desperate to fill roster holes for their favorite teams, which is why Kimbrel's name is mentioned on sports talk radio so often in Atlanta, and why Keuchel is repeatedly brought up in New York and elsewhere.
But just about all of the club evaluators who make personnel decisions these days are guilty of recency bias -- they don't care how many career saves Kimbrel has or that he led the NL in saves in four straight seasons, and they don't care how brilliant Keuchel was against the Yankees in the 2015 wild-card game. Instead, just about all of the evaluators who matter will focus on this question: How much can the 2019 versions of Kimbrel and Keuchel help their team's chances for success?
And many teams simply do not look at either pitcher, as accomplished as they are, as being a rock-solid solution with performance success all but guaranteed. Rather, they wonder about Keuchel's diminishing velocity, where it stands and how it will play, and they remember how Kimbrel struggled to throw strikes in the postseason last year. They remember that when the Red Sox had a chance to close out the Dodgers in the World Series, Boston manager Alex Cora went with Chris Sale, rather than Kimbrel, and they wonder what that really meant. They wonder, as well, about whether the two pitchers will be more effective after sitting unsigned the past four months, because they've seen so many other players -- including Greg Holland in 2018, and Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales in 2014 -- struggle or get hurt following their unaffiliated time away from game action.
There is serious interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel, but it is measured. As one GM noted over the weekend, if teams were salivating over two decorated pitchers, Keuchel and Kimbrel would already be under contract.
As of 12:01 a.m. Monday, the two players are no longer tied to draft-pick compensation, and the industry expectation is that both will agree to terms very soon.
Based on conversations with executives around baseball, these are at least some of the teams to watch:
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The Phillies: Their willingness to take on a portion of Jay Bruce's contract is a reminder that Philadelphia probably has more payroll flexibility than any other contender. Bryce Harper is signed for 13 years and Aaron Nola for four, but when compared to other big-market teams, the Phillies don't have a lot of long-term commitments. They have cash to throw around, and either pitcher would help. (And keep in mind: The Phillies have a good working relationship with Scott Boras, Keuchel's agent, having worked out deals for Jake Arrieta and Harper the past two winters.)
The Twins: Minnesota has dominated the early season, and according to FanGraphs, its chances for making the playoffs stand at 97.9 percent. If Keuchel and Kimbrel pitch well, they would represent upgrades, and the Twins -- who, like the Phillies, have a lot of payroll flexibility -- could justify overspending on Keuchel and/or Kimbrel because money spent on free agents would allow the front office to fill pitching-staff vacancies without dealing away prospects.
But the Twins' nearly complete control of the AL Central might temper their interest in the two free agents: They have an 11½-game lead, meaning if they spend big on Kimbrel and/or Keuchel, it would mostly represent an investment in the Twins' postseason. The Twins' brain trust knows the team is a virtual lock to win the division regardless of whom it adds, expensive or not. And friends of Derek Falvey, head of the Twins' baseball operations department, always mention that he is highly rational and won't overreact -- yet spending $12 million for a pitcher whose production isn't essential to reach October could be viewed as extravagant.
The Yankees: They have loads of cash, they have a great team, they're playing well, and there are cracks in their pitching. They believe Luis Severino will be back to help sometime in late July, but they don't know for sure. They expect CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka to hold up, but both have long injury histories. Keuchel would greatly improve the team's rotation depth, and there is a long history of soft-tossing lefties having success in Yankee Stadium. But keep in mind that the Yankees passed on Keuchel in the winter, targeting J.A. Happ and James Paxton rather than the ex-Astro.
The Braves: Atlanta's bullpen needs help, and the rotation could benefit from a veteran; because of Kimbrel's long history with the Braves, he could step right in and take over at closer after going through a mini spring training. But Atlanta's budget ceiling, set by Liberty Media, tends to be inflexible, so taking on $7 million or more in the middle of the season (which is what Keuchel and Kimbrel will probably make, prorated) might not be the best option for the Braves. The front office might prefer to wait for cheaper bullpen alternatives who will eventually become available in the trade market.
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</article>Kimbrel is said by teams to still be looking for a big, multiyear deal -- and the Braves have so much pitching on the rise that they might choose more modest means to fix the problem.
The Astros: They still had interest in Keuchel in early March, and given the recent shoulder issues of top prospect Forrest Whitley and the elbow trouble of Collin McHugh, they could revisit a one-year deal. But their one-year offer to Keuchel was for $15 million early in training camp, and now Keuchel's camp is said to be looking for something close to what he turned down in a qualifying offer from the Astros last fall, at $17.9 million. The two sides would have to find a comfortable way to bridge that gap.
The Rays: Their $30 million signing of Charlie Morton was a massive free-agent expenditure for this franchise, but the Rays still have a relatively low payroll, at about $57 million; center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and Morton are the only players making more than $5 million. Adding Keuchel on a one-year deal could cost the Rays another $9-10 million or so, which they could afford -- and they're in a fight in one of the more competitive divisions in baseball.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young Award and a World Series ring, and Craig Kimbrel is on a performance trajectory that might lead to his making an induction speech in Cooperstown. Their bona fides are alluring for fans desperate to fill roster holes for their favorite teams, which is why Kimbrel's name is mentioned on sports talk radio so often in Atlanta, and why Keuchel is repeatedly brought up in New York and elsewhere.
But just about all of the club evaluators who make personnel decisions these days are guilty of recency bias -- they don't care how many career saves Kimbrel has or that he led the NL in saves in four straight seasons, and they don't care how brilliant Keuchel was against the Yankees in the 2015 wild-card game. Instead, just about all of the evaluators who matter will focus on this question: How much can the 2019 versions of Kimbrel and Keuchel help their team's chances for success?
And many teams simply do not look at either pitcher, as accomplished as they are, as being a rock-solid solution with performance success all but guaranteed. Rather, they wonder about Keuchel's diminishing velocity, where it stands and how it will play, and they remember how Kimbrel struggled to throw strikes in the postseason last year. They remember that when the Red Sox had a chance to close out the Dodgers in the World Series, Boston manager Alex Cora went with Chris Sale, rather than Kimbrel, and they wonder what that really meant. They wonder, as well, about whether the two pitchers will be more effective after sitting unsigned the past four months, because they've seen so many other players -- including Greg Holland in 2018, and Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales in 2014 -- struggle or get hurt following their unaffiliated time away from game action.
There is serious interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel, but it is measured. As one GM noted over the weekend, if teams were salivating over two decorated pitchers, Keuchel and Kimbrel would already be under contract.
As of 12:01 a.m. Monday, the two players are no longer tied to draft-pick compensation, and the industry expectation is that both will agree to terms very soon.
Based on conversations with executives around baseball, these are at least some of the teams to watch:
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
But the Twins' nearly complete control of the AL Central might temper their interest in the two free agents: They have an 11½-game lead, meaning if they spend big on Kimbrel and/or Keuchel, it would mostly represent an investment in the Twins' postseason. The Twins' brain trust knows the team is a virtual lock to win the division regardless of whom it adds, expensive or not. And friends of Derek Falvey, head of the Twins' baseball operations department, always mention that he is highly rational and won't overreact -- yet spending $12 million for a pitcher whose production isn't essential to reach October could be viewed as extravagant.
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</article>Kimbrel is said by teams to still be looking for a big, multiyear deal -- and the Braves have so much pitching on the rise that they might choose more modest means to fix the problem.
